Dollars and Sense: The Significance of Knowing Your Home's Worth

You would have to be living under a rock or in an area that is completely off grid to not be somewhat aware that real estate prices have been fluctuating and increasing significantly in many areas over the past couple of years. If you have not purchased or refinanced recently, your homes value might have changed from where you thought it was just 12 -18 months ago. Knowing the value of your home can be important for many reasons of which, here are a few:

Financial Planning

The value of your home is a significant component of your overall net worth. Your home is likely one of your most significant assets. Knowing its value allows you to calculate your net worth accurately. Understanding its value helps you make informed decisions about your financial planning, such as determining your assets, calculating your equity, or evaluating your borrowing capacity.

Selling or Renting

If you're considering selling or renting out your property, knowing its value is crucial. It allows you to set a competitive price that aligns with the market, ensuring you don't undervalue or overprice your home.

Refinancing or Home Equity Loans

When refinancing your mortgage or applying for a home equity loan, the value of your home plays a vital role in determining the amount you can borrow. Lenders assess the loan-to-value ratio, which compares the loan amount to the home's appraised value, to determine eligibility and interest rates.

Property Taxes

The value of your home often influences property tax assessments. Local tax authorities use property values to calculate the amount of tax you owe. Knowing your home's value helps you ensure that you're being taxed fairly and can plan for potential increases.

Insurance Coverage

Understanding the value of your home is essential for obtaining the appropriate insurance coverage. If your home is underinsured, you may not receive sufficient compensation in the event of damage or loss. Conversely, overinsuring your home means paying more in premiums than necessary.

Investment Decisions

If you're considering real estate as an investment, knowing the value of your home can help you assess its potential return on investment, evaluate rental income potential, or make informed decisions about buying additional properties.

It is important to note that home values can fluctuate over time due to various factors such as market conditions, location, renovations, or changes in the neighborhood. Therefore, regularly monitoring and assessing your home's value is important for staying informed. If you would like to check out more information regarding the importance of knowing your homes value, check out the following articles:

https://www.homes.com/blog/2017/03/benefits-of-knowing-your-homes-value-whether-you-are-staying-or-selling/

https://www.homelight.com/blog/check-house-value/

Reducing the Stress of Divorce: The Vital Role of an Experienced Appraiser

We understand that going through a divorce is an incredibly challenging experience, both emotionally and legally. In these turbulent times, it becomes crucial to alleviate some of the stress involved in the process. One effective way to achieve this is by engaging the services of an experienced and qualified appraiser who has been established as an expert witness in divorce litigation. In this blog post, we will delve into the significance of hiring an appraiser with expert witness testimony experience for divorce appraisals, offering invaluable support during this trying period.

Understanding the Legal Process

An appraiser with expert witness testimony experience possesses an in-depth comprehension of the legal process involved in divorce appraisals. They are well-versed in the intricacies of presenting their findings in a clear and concise manner, ensuring that their testimony carries maximum weight in the courtroom. Their familiarity with legal procedures enhances the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Credibility and Reputation

One key aspect of hiring an appraiser with expert witness testimony experience is the credibility and reputation they bring to the table. By engaging such an appraiser, you can rest assured that their testimony will be taken seriously by the court. Having established a track record of providing objective, unbiased opinions, I have successfully demonstrated my expertise in numerous courtrooms located in Armstrong, Westmoreland and Indiana Counties, thereby earning the reputation of a reliable and trustworthy appraiser.

Crucial Role in Court

In my professional opinion, the importance of hiring an appraiser with expert witness testimony experience cannot be overstated in divorce appraisals. The appraiser's opinion often serves as pivotal evidence in supporting one party's claims over the other, making it imperative for their testimony to withstand rigorous cross-examination. By selecting an appraiser with this specific experience, you minimize the risk of having your clients' arguments weakened or dismissed.

Reducing Stress During Divorce

Navigating through a divorce is an emotionally taxing experience. By ensuring that you choose an appraiser with the necessary qualifications and expertise to provide expert witness testimony, you can alleviate some of the stress associated with the process. The knowledge that your appraiser is capable of delivering accurate and unbiased valuations to support your case will provide you and your clients with peace of mind, allowing you to focus on other crucial aspects of the legal proceedings.

In the event that you require an appraisal during the course of a divorce, we invite you to contact our office, where we guarantee the utmost standard of excellence in appraisals, coupled with the professionalism necessary to deliver expert witness testimony, should the need arise.

Health Risks in Older Homes

When purchasing an older home, whether you intend to renovate with the plan to live in it or “flip it”, there are some risks you should familiarize yourself with before you begin.

Lead- Lead is often found in the paint, plumbing and the settled dust of an older home. Specifically, homes built prior to 1978 all carry the risk of lead based paint. If you want more information I wrote a blog article on the risks associated with this: https://www.tncresappraisals.com/blog/2022/10/14/lead-based-paint-cant-be-that-bad-or-can-it The best way to deal with lead issues is to consult with a certified lead professional before renovating.

Asbestos- Prior to 1980, asbestos was used in insulation, flooring, roof sheathing and even on textured ceilings. The EPA issued a ban on most products containing asbestos in 1989. When the asbestos fibers are damaged or disturbed, the become airborne which is when it poses the greatest hazard as you breathe these fibers into your lungs. This exposure can show up years later in the form of lung cancer and mesothelioma. When you suspect a material contains asbestos, never sand, scrape or drill holes through it. It is best to use an asbestos abatement professional to determine if something contains asbestos and for any type of repair or removal.

Mold- This can be one of the most insidious of the problems as it is a living organism that, when not treated thoroughly, can reoccur continuously. It also can hide and not appear as an issue until it is an overwhelming problem. It is most likely to occur in areas where there is plumbing or water infiltration like a roof leak or poorly sealed window frame. Those with pre-existing health issues such as allergies or lung problems can be overly sensitive to mold spores. In areas where there is more than 100 square feet of affected area, it is strongly recommended that you use a professional to remediate this issue.

While all three of these health hazards can be scary to think about, each of them are treatable with the right kind of professional. Know the risk and evaluate their impact within your decision process.

Murrysville 2022 Market in Review

The year 2022 was a year of historically low inventory and high demand, unlike anything Murrysville has seen in recent history. Interest rates have been a major player in the market this year and definitely caused some of the historic gains to cool off towards the last quarter of the year. As rates rose, activity slowed- at least to a certain extent. As you look through this report, you will notice that the rise in mortgage rates corresponds to other market data events.

The annual median home sales price rose from $330,000 in 2021 to $374,100 in 2022 which is a 13.4% increase. Compare that to the year 2020 when the median sale price was $300,000 and the increase was at 10%.  In looking to this coming year, it is safe to say that these increases will cool down. To what degree will depend on mortgage interest rates, inflation, demand and market saturation.

The general trend in the median sale price over the past year has been increasing with the peaks in those increases showing up during the summer months.

The supply has been historically very low in 2022 and this chart shows that there was a build up right around April. It is typically between March and April that sellers list their properties in anticipation of the height of the buying season.

The marketing times (expressed in DOM- days on market) has also been extremely low. However, in the past few months, this has been rising due to a cooling in the market most likely attributed to seasonal cyclical events during winter months and compounded by the rising mortgage rates. A rise in marketing times should be viewed as a possible indicator that listing prices are at a peak point and/or demand is starting to balance.

As is expected, the quantity of sales is most active in the months May through September.

The current number of active listings is also decreasing. We will have to wait to see if this starts to increase when the market typically experiences seasonal cyclical events around March or April when sellers like to place their properties on the market.

Not only as demonstrated in the previous chart which showed the number of actives decreasing, the median list price is also decreasing. This could be significant to keep in mind. As the marketing times increase and the list prices decrease, this could have a direct impact on the median sale price going forward. Only time will tell how all of this will affect 2023 sales.

How will increasing mortgage rates affect you and your investment?

You would have to be living under a rock to not know that interest rates have been steadily rising and are currently at levels we have not see in many years.

According to the latest article as of this writing dated 10/21/2022, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage remains just shy of 7%. This is having a direct impact that is negatively impacting the housing market.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/homes/mortgage-rates-october-20

Image taken from bankrate.com

In the past month, I have started to see increasing supply that will soon be balanced and in my opinion, if the current environment remains the same or rates continue to rise, we will see the balance at best or the oversupply at worst we are used to seeing.

What happens when you have decreasing demand and higher supply?

This negatively impacts sales prices. In turn, this causes values to decline.

Unfortunately, this is not good news. It is difficult to know how far this decline will go or how long it will last. According to the CNN article I referred to, home sales have been falling month over month and we are in the longest housing sales slump since October 2007. They also state that applications for home purchases are down 38% and those for refinances have fallen off of a cliff.

This might not be the case for home appraisals and the home sales in our market area, but as is historically accurate in the past, we tend to be on the back end of the national curve. If what they say is true, then we are in the very beginning of this same slump and need to be prepared for the ride.

If you are in the market to purchase a home, refinance or require a home valuation for other purposes such as estates and divorces, you need to be prepared for the value of the property to possibly show a decline from the past 2 years.

One Upon A Time.... A Housing Fairy Tale

Once upon a time, there was a rich nation which valued many things. There were many owners and “wannabe” owners. The owners wanted to be richer and the wannabes wanted to be like the owners. They all liked value. Some people even became “valuers of things.” They claimed to know value.

Value was price. It was obvious. Nothing to talk about here. Move along.

The owners needed money they didn’t have. So, they got help from loaners.

The loaners put up most of the money and became interested. The loaner-owners also wanted to be rich. They could get rich by “selling money!”. (Actually, they were only renting the money, but no one wanted to hear that.) And best of all, they were not renting their own money. They were renting other people’s money (OPM), and the other people didn’t really own the money either. It was just sort of out there, all guaranteed, completely safe.

What is important is that everyone liked value, but everyone needed to have someone say the value is fair. They were able to get others to declare the value as fair, but some valued fair as high as possible. “Uppraisers” were in demand.

A few of the dealer wheelers got together. The loaners became lender benders. They found liar buyers. And they found uppraisers.

All the owners, the wannabe owners, and the loaner-helpers liked uppraisers a lot because they helped richness for all. Everything worked well so long as “value” equaled price!

Until it didn’t.

~Reproduced with permission from George Dell, SRA, MAI, ASA, CRE - an excerpt from an article in the Appraisal Buzz, Thirteenth Edition, Fall 2022, Price vs Value, as found on page 27

Observe or Inspect?

Inspection: careful examination or scrutiny

Observation: the action or process of observing something carefully in order to gain information

While the definitions are close, inspection seems to indicate a more detailed way of looking at something just by the words “examination” and ”scrutiny”.

There seems to be some confusion as to the role of the appraiser when performing an “inspection”. The process of going to the house to view a property is often termed inspection by many, including the appraiser. This can be confusing to the general public, and no matter what it is called, is not equivalent to that of an inspection performed by a home inspector. For this reason, I have recently changed the way I describe the process of collecting pertinent information about the property I’m appraising as an observation. When HUD updated its handbook for FHA insured loans, under the responsibilities of the appraiser they even stopped using the word inspection and replaced it with observe or observation.

An inspection performed by a licensed home inspector requires a higher level of scrutiny that is not within the scope of work for appraisal purposes. A quality home inspection can reveal critical information about the condition of a home and its systems. This makes the buyer aware of what costs, repairs and maintenance the home may require immediately, and over time. A home inspection in no way ever addresses how these conditions relate to value. In fact, the licensing laws and regulations for home inspectors do not permit them to develop opinions of property value.

As appraisers, when on site at the property, we observe the pertinent salient features of a property in order to determine size, functionality, quality and condition for the sole purpose of analyzing how these items affect the marketability and contributory value. It is clearly stated in most appraisal reports that while we make certain determinations as to the quality and condition of the house and its individual systems or components, we are not inspectors and do not warrant or guarantee these items.

Regardless of what it is called, the role of the home inspector and the appraiser is very different. A home inspector will evaluate the home to determine the condition for the purpose of informing the client about critical information pertaining to the home and its systems. An appraiser will observe the relevant characteristics of a property in order to relate it to value.

Experience Matters

When making a decision to contract just about anyone to perform a service, one of the most important qualifiers for most is the experience one brings to the table. You really don’t want someone building your deck who has never built one before or replacing your transmission if they have never worked on cars. It works the same with performing real estate appraisals.

I’ve gone back through my files and found that since starting my business in 2009, I have performed over 6,200 valuations for all kinds of clients: lenders, lawyers, accountants, home owners, estates, real estate agents, etc. Add to that the reports I completed during my training process and then as a certified appraiser in a different office for over 8 years.

So if you need an appraisal performed on a piece of residential real estate, what should you look for that will help you to know that the appraiser has the experience necessary to produce a credible assignment result giving you a valuation that is something that can be deemed reliable?

1. How long have they been appraising?

While it is true that newly certified appraisers do have experience performing appraisals because the profession still is constructed as an apprenticeship program, it takes a good 3 - 5 years to feel fully confident in your ability to perform appraisals on all types of properties. The more unique the property, the more experience necessary to produce a credible report.

2. How many assignments have they performed in your market area?

Time appraising is one factor. Experience in your market is a whole different ball game. I have been performing appraisals in the southwest Pennsylvania areas of Westmoreland, Armstrong, Indiana, Butler, Allegheny and Cambria Counties for years. However, I have never performed an appraisal in Greene County. My experience as an appraiser in some areas does not make me an expert in others.

3. Does the appraiser have experience appraising the type of property you need appraised?

Standard “cookie cutter” properties are those properties that are homogenous to the market area. Think about an established residential plan that has over 200 homes in which there is a steady sales activity. These are typically easy to appraise and does not take a significant amount of additional research or analysis. What about a home that was built on a slab in an area where 99% of the homes have a basement? Or a condo in a plan that is the only condominium plan in the entire county and you are lucky if one sells per year such as in Armstrong County? How about a 1 bedroom home where less than 2% of the homes in the county are 1 bedroom homes? These more unique properties take additional effort, time and expertise to be able to know how to extract what factors have the highest marketable indicators and contributory value in the market. Additionally, the report writing takes longer in order to make sure that your intended user understands the analysis and conclusions contained in your report.

When you are in need of a residential real estate appraisal, it is important to know that you can confidently rely on the conclusions. It doesn’t mean you will always agree with the value, but if you choose wisely, you can be sure to rely on the report as a good representation of that properties estimated market value. At Town & Country Residential Appraisals, we can give you that type of confidence for all types of residential properties in the counties we cover. We have the experience that matters!

Murrysville 2022 Quarter 1

It was bound to happen. The signs are pointing to a cooling off from the height of increases we experienced in 2021. While there is still a short supply, this supply is starting to increase. As of this writing on May 23, 2022 there were 84 sales in Murrysville since the first of the year and currently there are 24 active listings, 43 properties with contingent contracts and 17 properties under contract.

2022 Quarter 1 Sales

According to the data, the first quarter of sales in 2022 for Murrysville has shown a decrease in the predominant sale prices of 2.5% per month based on simple regression. This is different from the first quarter of 2021 which was experiencing an increase of 5.6% per month.

2021 Quarter 1 Sales

I don’t have the ability to forecast what will happen in the future and we are entering the cyclical time of year when sales typically are at their strongest. However, the start of this year is possibly showing that prices are starting to correct from the highs and increases posted by 2021 and the balance is starting to tip in favor of more of a balance.

Murrysville Year 2021 in Review

Last year, I relocated my business to Murrysville. It has been a pleasure to provide residential valuation services in an area that has so much to offer. As many have heard, read or experienced, the real estate market in the year 2021 was crazy. Houses would go up for sale and within a very short period of time, sometimes hours, multiple offers were received. Buyers were getting very aggressive with their offers, electing to forego all inspections, include escalation clauses and even include things such as free pizza dinners on Fridays for a year or Super Bowl tickets.

I decided to run the numbers on Murrysville as a whole and found that in the year 2021 there were a total of 267 recorded sales using a search of our local multiple listing service. These numbers do not include foreclosures or short sales. As an appraiser, we analyze what is going on in the market area. When doing this, we have to look at both the long term and short term activity in order to be able to recognize when there are changes happening in the market and how to best determine how this impacts value.

Murrysville Year 2021 Real Estate Sales Statistics

If you look at the general statistics of the area as a whole using simple regression, this shows that the year in review experienced a rising predominant sales price of about 1.3% per month.

Murrysville, 2021 Qtr 1

The moment you break down the sales prices into quarters, there are some very interesting results. The first quarter of the year had 59 sales which was the least number of transactions per quarter but was the only quarter that experienced an increase in predominant sales prices. Seasonally, the first and fourth quarters typically are the times of year with the least number of transactions, however, there were not the significant differences that we would typically find between the quarters. Quarter 2 had 78 sales, quarter 3 had 63 sales and the last quarter had 65 sales. More surprising is that the remaining 3 quarters experienced declines in the predominant sales prices.

Murrysville, 2021 Qtr 2

Murrysville, 2021 Qtr 3

Murrysville, 2021 Qtr 4

It is important to know that when determining the impact of what is going on in the market, statistics need to be analyzed specific to the area and specific to the time frame being impacted. Quarter 1 experienced a very significant increase in sales prices, quarter 2 was basically flat, quarter 3 had a reverse reaction by a notable decline with another decline in the 4th quarter but not as significant as the previous quarter.

The good news is that the declines of the last 2 quarters did not erase the overall trend of an increase from the beginning of the year. However, the last 2 quarters show that there could be a definite trend that is showing a cooling off and decline in the predominant sales prices.