Health Risks in Older Homes

When purchasing an older home, whether you intend to renovate with the plan to live in it or “flip it”, there are some risks you should familiarize yourself with before you begin.

Lead- Lead is often found in the paint, plumbing and the settled dust of an older home. Specifically, homes built prior to 1978 all carry the risk of lead based paint. If you want more information I wrote a blog article on the risks associated with this: https://www.tncresappraisals.com/blog/2022/10/14/lead-based-paint-cant-be-that-bad-or-can-it The best way to deal with lead issues is to consult with a certified lead professional before renovating.

Asbestos- Prior to 1980, asbestos was used in insulation, flooring, roof sheathing and even on textured ceilings. The EPA issued a ban on most products containing asbestos in 1989. When the asbestos fibers are damaged or disturbed, the become airborne which is when it poses the greatest hazard as you breathe these fibers into your lungs. This exposure can show up years later in the form of lung cancer and mesothelioma. When you suspect a material contains asbestos, never sand, scrape or drill holes through it. It is best to use an asbestos abatement professional to determine if something contains asbestos and for any type of repair or removal.

Mold- This can be one of the most insidious of the problems as it is a living organism that, when not treated thoroughly, can reoccur continuously. It also can hide and not appear as an issue until it is an overwhelming problem. It is most likely to occur in areas where there is plumbing or water infiltration like a roof leak or poorly sealed window frame. Those with pre-existing health issues such as allergies or lung problems can be overly sensitive to mold spores. In areas where there is more than 100 square feet of affected area, it is strongly recommended that you use a professional to remediate this issue.

While all three of these health hazards can be scary to think about, each of them are treatable with the right kind of professional. Know the risk and evaluate their impact within your decision process.

Times Are A-Changin'

Over the past couple months, there has been a shift in the market here in the Greensburg area of Westmoreland County. These changes are being affected by multiple factors such as the seasonal time of year that typically impacts real estate, the rise in interest rates and the need for the market to correct itself from the heightened activity over the past year. This shift was so pronounced in a recent appraisal I completed that I had to share it with you. Below is a graph that was taken from a work file for a property I have recently appraised. This is real time data. When you take a look at this graph, it clearly shows that the supply in the market has made a rapid rise within the past month and is starting to equal the Summer of 2020 and pre-Covid levels.

You might ask, “What does this mean?”. Well, I don’t have a crystal ball and am not in the business of being an economic forecaster- so the immediate answer is “I don’t know yet”. Only time will tell. However, just like the leaves are changing color indicating changes are coming, real estate data is starting to tell us that changes are possibly coming in the near future.

Keep updated with my blog. As soon as I have more information to pass along regarding marketing trends, I will pass it along to you.

FHA and Storage Tanks

As most know, FHA follows the guidelines set forth in the HUD Handbook 4000.1 which includes the MPR’s (Minimum Property Requirements) that we have to follow when appraising a property that is being insured by FHA financing. Over time, these requirements are revised and if not fully aware, one might not realize that these changes can affect a property’s ability to qualify for this type of financing.

One of these changes that took place is in regards to storage tanks that contain hazardous or flammable materials- such as propane, automobile fuel, oil, natural gas, etc.

Prior to this change, it used to be that if a property line were within less than 300’ of a property that contained underground storage tanks with a capacity of at least 1,000 gallons of such material, the property did not qualify for FHA insured financing. In some of our towns with corner convenience stores that included gas pumps (such as Greensburg), this meant that any property within 300’ of this did not qualify.

However, HUD has chosen to change the language and now only states that those properties within 300’ of a property with above ground storage tanks do not qualify and has deleted the words “under ground”.

(7) Stationary Storage Tanks

If the subject property line is located within 300 feet of an aboveground, stationary storage tank with a capacity of 1,000 gallons or more of flammable or explosive material, then the Property is ineligible for FHA insurance, and the Appraiser must notify the Mortgagee of the deficiency of MPR or MPS.

So this is good news. It appears that those properties within 300’ of a gas station that contain underground storage tanks for their fuel now qualify, whereas once they did not.

When Should I Get An Appraisal

Most people know that appraisals need to be completed for lending purposes. But did you know there are a number of other reasons you should be contracting an appraiser to perform a professional valuation on your property?

 1. When you are the seller of a FSBO (For Sale By Owner). My experience in completing appraisals for properties that have been sold without the professional expertise of a real estate professional is that the selling price is often lower than the value. Many people think that they are saving the expense of paying a commission to a broker and therefore have some wiggle room in deciding on a sale price. Based on my research of keeping the data on these types of transactions, at least 75% - 80% of the time, the seller would have had a higher net income even if they were to have paid the commission. If you plan on selling your home, you have two options- either contract a real estate agent to properly help you price and market the home or get an appraisal so that you can maximize your income from the sale.

 2. When you are a cash buyer you definitely want to get an appraisal. In cases where a buyer is using financing, there is a built in fail safe because the lender is going to require an appraisal. If the appraisal determines that the value of the property is less than the agreed upon purchase price, this will impact the loan and often allow the parties to renegotiate in order to make the transaction work. If you are paying cash, you should choose an appraisal contingency that allows you the option to have an appraisal completed. This way you can be assured that what you are choosing to pay is based on the information about what the property is worth. In todays crazy market, many people are choosing to pay more just to get into a house, but with an appraisal it would be a willing choice based on being informed. If you would prefer to not pay more than the property is worth, then an appraisal contingency will allow you to either renegotiate or back out without penalty.

 3. When you are the executor or executrix for an estate. Estate appraisals are necessary to be able to pay the appropriate level of estate taxes. Many times the probate attorney will need an appraisal in order to properly calculate the estate taxes. This information can also be helpful in determining if a family member is willing and able to purchase the property or if it is best to sell it on the open market.

4. Divorce litigation- Divorces are never easy and when there is shared real estate involved, typically an appraisal will be ordered by both parties as part of the overall process. These appraisals should not be considerably different as it should not matter which side the valuation is being performed for. In some cases, if there is a significant difference in the values, the court will order a third or make a ruling based on the testimony of the appraisers for the reports already completed. This value becomes important if you have ever heard the term “buy out”. The party that desires to stay in the home has to buy out the party that is no longer going to be in the home.

 5. Consulting services are what you need if you are looking to remodel, subdivide or construct an new addition. If you are looking to make major renovations, subdivide a large parcel of property into smaller multiple parcels or construct an addition to your home, it is strongly advised to consult a real estate appraiser to help you in determining how to maximize the value versus the cost. Too often I’ve encountered many well intended owners who spend tens of thousands of dollars to make major renovations to their home or property without realizing that the return on their investment is minimal and no where near the investment they made. In the end, they are saddled with a large amount of debt and little return to show for it. A few firsthand examples I have seen is the $75,000 spent for a custom in ground pool, the $3,000,000+ custom home in an area that has median sale prices around $200,000 or the $100,000 renovation to a 150 year old barn with minimal contributory value. Consulting services can help you determine the best renovations to make resulting in the highest market value or it can help give you an insight into the highest potential for a subdivision or addition.

 There are other possible reasons for needing an appraisals, such as tax appeals, bankruptcy or eminent domain, but these are some of the more common ones. In the near future, I’d like to expound on these in even more detail. In the meantime, if you need an appraisal for any purpose, please trust the Gold Level Real Estate Appraisal Office from the Best of Westmoreland County 2022 contest. We would be more than happy to help you with all of your real estate valuation needs.

Another Electric Recall

Did you see the latest electrical recall headline? Schneider Electric™ Recalls 1.4 Million Electrical Panels Due to Thermal Burn and Fire Hazards

That is a lot of electrical panels. The long standing recall for unsafe panels dealt with Federal Pacific Stab-lok Breakers. Now the new recall involves “Square D” breakers and panels manufactured by Schneider Electric.

The hazard is described as: The load center can overheat, posing thermal burn and fire hazards. Specifically:

The issue detected is a loose neutral screw connection within the QO Plug-On Neutral Load Center.

The recall affects Square D QO Plug-on neutral load centers, commonly called breaker boxes or electrical panels, that might have been installed in homes, recreational vehicles, or commercial structures such as restaurants, manufacturing facilities, warehouses, commercial lighting, and others.

The affected products were manufactured between February 2020 and January 2022, with date codes between 200561 and 220233. Circuit breaker boxes and covers manufactured between December 2019 and March 2022 are also included in the recall.

The recall notice provides advice on how to read the date codes:

For installed outdoor load centers, the manufacturing date codes are printed on the inside of the cover or door of the unit or on the box itself when the cover or door is open.

For installed indoor load centers, a qualified electrician can locate the interior date codes that are not visible to the home owner.

If you think you have one of these panels installed in your home, call a certified electrician to not only determine if you have one of these panels, but can replace any needed faulty components with ones that do not pose a hazard to your home.

For more information click on the link below:

https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2022/Schneider-ElectricTM-Recalls-1-4-Million-Electrical-Panels-Due-to-Thermal-Burn-and-Fire-Hazards

Just The Facts Ma'am

Recently I have completed a couple appraisals involving properties with installed financed solar panels. In each case, I asked the home owner a lot of questions regarding their “investment”. The reason I put that word in quotes is because the idea of solar panels in our area being an investment is at best loosely termed. I’ll present “just the facts” and let you be the judge.

I’ll start off with a major disclaimer- I am not a solar energy expert by any means. However, I have enough experience and have researched enough information to help others in making a financial decision when it pertains to the value of their property. The purpose of this post is not to get into a discussion about the pros and cons of clean energy or solar energy in particular. What I would like to discuss is whether or not solar power will add value to your home in our geographic location. Many articles, including the one referenced just below mention that solar panels can increase the value of many homes. The big question is will they add value to your home? As in all cases when it comes to an appraisal question the answer is always “it depends”.

If you want to know more about solar panels themselves, click below for more information:

Click on the image to find more general information on solar panels.

I’ll only use one example as they all follow a similar trend. The house in question was valued around $170,000 with none of the value attributed to the solar panels as there isn’t sufficient sales data in our area to extract a contributory value for the amenity of solar panels. The owner purchased 20 panels for $40,000 using financing which was to be amortized over 20 years with a 3.5% interest rate. The purchaser decided against purchasing the battery bank which would have added another $20,000. That is important to note as a battery bank allows you to store the energy generated by the solar panels. Solar panels do not store electricity so when they are not generating electric (like at night) you will be using the electricity provided by your electric company and not from your panels.

The owner stated that the company marketing these panels was very “pushy” and made it so that they only had a couple days to decide. They were in the area and that was the only time they’d be given the opportunity to buy into these panels. They also stated that the amount of panels he was using would provide a sufficient amount of electricity so that they wouldn’t have an electric bill once the system was installed.

However, this did not turn out to be true. Currently their average bill is about $50 - $70 a month which is about $100 savings per month in the electric cost from what they were paying prior to the installation. There is also an additional savings on the gas bill as they converted their main heat source from a gas furnace (now used as back up for when the electric goes out) to an electric heat pump. For sake of example, lets conservatively estimate they are saving $200 average per month ($100 savings in electric and now not having a gas bill). You be the judge as to whether this was a good investment. To quote the owner, “If I had to do it all over again, I would not have done it.”

To break this down: $40,000 amortized over 20 years at a rate of 3.5% calculates to a monthly payment of $231.98 and a total cost of $55,676.50. You would had to have saved at the very least that much over the 40 year period of time in order to break even. We haven’t even discussed that solar panels have an economic life to them and over time have a reduced rate of efficiency. At some point, they need to be replaced and have an average life expectancy of 25 - 30 years. The older they are, the lower their capacity to generate solar power.

Now…. just the facts.

HOW MANY SUNNY DAYS DO WE TYPICALLY GET IN THE GREENSBURG, PA AREA?

According to online sources, Greensburg, PA gets about 163 sunny days per year. This includes sunny and partly sunny days. While solar panels still can generate power on cloudy days, they just might generate less power, depending upon the quality and efficiency of your panels

IS THE LOAN FOR PURCHASING SOLAR PANELS TRANSFERRABLE IF I SELL MY HOUSE?

Most loans utilized for the purchase of solar panels are not assumable. If you decide to sell your property prior to the payoff of these loans, the proceeds for the sale of the property would need to cover the amount of any existing mortgage and the additional loan for the solar panels in order for that the panels to be paid off. If not, then you would still be responsible for paying the entirety of the loan whether you own the home or not.

ARE THERE TAX CREDITS FOR SOLAR PANELS?

There are credits, however, there are a number of factors that determine the amount of credits and how they are applied. For information check out this site:

https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/homeowners-guide-federal-tax-credit-solar-photovoltaics

WHAT IS THE LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR SOLAR PANELS?

According to an article found on GreenBiz,

“Solar power is having its hockey stick moment. Since the early 2000s, the amount of solar panels being installed worldwide has been growing exponentially, and it’s expected to continue to do so for decades. By the end of 2015, an estimated 222 gigawatts worth of solar energy had been installed worldwide. According to a recent report from the International Renewable Energy Agency, that number could reach 4,500 GW by 2050.

But the solar panels generating that power don’t last forever. The industry standard life span is about 25 to 30 years, and that means that some panels installed at the early end of the current boom aren’t long from being retired. And each passing year, more will be pulled from service — glass and metal photovoltaic modules that soon will start adding up to millions, and then tens of millions of metric tons of material.”

WHAT DOES A BATTERY BANK DO FOR SOLAR POWER?

The battery bank allows you to store the energy produced by the panels during non-peak hours. Here is a helpful comprehensive link from SolarReviews.com regarding solar battery banks:

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/is-solar-battery-storage-worth-it-given-current-solar-battery-cost

WHAT WILL IT COST FOR ME TO INSTALL A SOLAR POWER SYSTEM ON MY PROPERTY?

According to Bob Vila’s website, “the typical cost of solar panels ranges between $17,000 and $34,174, with the national average at $25,633.” This represents the cost of the panels and does not represent the added cost of the battery bank system.

For a more comprehensive article on the cost of a solar energy system check out this article from Nerd Wallet:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/solar-panel-cost#:~:text=With%20installation%2C%20an%20average%20residential,to%20pay%20for%20solar%20panels.

Now that you know the facts, will a solar energy system add value to your home?

Price per Square Foot Is not an Indicator of Value

There are examples throughout the country where the value of a property is referenced by price per square foot. Human beings often want a simple concept that is easy to convey and understand. This simple unit of measure takes the sale price of the house and divides it by the square footage of the house to derive at a simple unit measure of assumed value. Even if this was a trusted metric, unfortunately, the square footage might not even be right as there is no universal standard that determines this to make it reliable. Many trusted real estate websites and even real estate professionals refer to this metric when selling or attempting to use a valuation model to determine estimated value or list price. Let me tell you why this is not a good unit of measure to value your property.

First you need to understand that in order for this to make sense, all factors for marketability must be equal across the board. Its like saying that the value of a car is equal to the price per horse power regardless of the brand, style, age and condition. That makes about as much sense as determining value as a cost per square foot. Just like there are multiple factors that make up a car besides the horsepower, there are many factors that make up the value of a property that can include the quality of construction, condition, how many bedrooms and bathrooms or even the size of the lot. When you break down a sale price or assumed value based only on the gross living area of a property, you eliminate the other factors that all contribute to the value of the property.

Let’s look at a hypothetical example which happens quite often in Westmoreland County and use a 2,000 sf 2 story home built in the early 2000’s using average quality components and workmanship. These homes have 4 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms above grade with a finished family room and full bathroom in the basement.

Example 1- Located in Murrysville and is located in an established residential plan with a lot size of approximately 1/2 acre. The home has been well maintained and has a fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms. This home also has a 2 car integral garage.

Example 1- sold for $350,000 which calculates to $175.00 per square foot.

Example 2- Located in Washington Township which is just north of Murrysville but is serviced by a different school district. This house is located in a more residential rural area and sits on 5 acres of property. This home is exactly the same as example one except this home did not have any remodeling and it has a 3 car detached garage that was built 5 years ago. Its been well maintained but most items have not been replaced.

 Example 2- sold for $400,000 which calculates for $200.00 per square foot.

So which one is right- $175.00 or $200.00? Actually, neither. As you can see by these examples, while the houses may be the same in square footage, there are many determining factors that contribute to the value of a property. The higher price per square foot for the second example can be attributed to the lot size and newly built 3 car garage but these are factors that have nothing to do with the square footage of the house.

Our job as an appraiser is to determine those factors that contribute to the marketability of a property. These can include location, quality, condition, utility, lot size and additional amenities such as pools, outbuildings, etc. We use multiple methods to determine how these impact the determinations of both buyers and sellers and apply them accordingly. I can emphatically say that we never calculate value using the price per square foot “method” because we don’t have such a method. The only way price per square foot should be applied is when determining the cost to build a structure.

National vs Local Trends: "Reversion to the Mean"

Above: 1970-2019 National median home price % increase VS. home construction % increase

There is lots of talk of national home prices increasing since 2008 and having stalled in 2018-2019 and what the possible causes could be, but what does that have to do with our local market. For years the national trend has been increasing at around 3% per year, however, very few areas in western Pennsylvania have seen this kind of return. The bad news is that western PA tends to lag the national trend. The good news is that this means that housing market crashes are far less severe in western PA due to a principle called “mean reversion.”

Perhaps the greatest lesson we can take away from national home prices is that when home prices suddenly appreciate away from their normal growth curve (see the black line above) they tend to then crash back through that curve, or “revert to the mean.” (for a very in depth look at this, and the many factors that are at work in real estate). Further, we can take a look at the relationship of building cost to the median home price - factors that certainly should affect one another. As seen above around 1990 and 2006 there were two hard reversions towards not only the mean, but also towards the building cost curve. Lets take a closer look at the time frame from 1990 forward.

As seen here, after the flattening of the curve in 1990 there was a 10 year period where the two moved in concert. However, in 2000 the median home price begins to accelerate rapidly, ending in a reversion below its mean in 2006-2009. For the next 2 years the two again move in concert, until approximately 2012 where median home prices again break to the upside, now seeming to make a top in 2018-2019.

What will the next 2 years look like in the national market? (See the green and red lines above).

1. IF the mean line of the last 10 years is in fact the new normal, there could be a flattening of growth similar to that of 1990, with little appreciation, and perhaps some regional loses in areas that experienced the greatest growth.

2. IF the mean line of the last 10 years is not the new normal, there could be a hard reversion closer to that of builder growth levels. This could indicate a decline more on the order of 2008.

What does that mean for western PA?

Sadly data becomes more limited and unreliable further back in time in the West Penn Multi List which covers much of western PA.

A few take aways from this data

1. Median home prices per quarter are very seasonal.

2. The housing crisis of 2006-2010” nationally was far shorter in this region. While 10-12 months nationally in length, that number is nearly halved to 6 in western PA.

3. The housing crisis was not nearly as deep for our region.

4. Median home price increases are out pacing building costs.

If a reversion to the mean occurs (is occurring nationally), western PA will like experience some pull back in home prices, however, not nearly as deep as the national trend. If national home prices only flatten, this will likely have little effect on the region as a whole, with the exception of areas that have experienced high growth.

Here is someone in 2006 seeing the “reversion to the mean” coming: https://seekingalpha.com/article/18667-housing-what-does-return-to-mean-really-mean

Under improvements / Over improvements

How much is the 4th pool worth on a property? How about the 29th bathroom? How about the 20th garage? These are absurd examples of “over improvements” in almost any market (unless your market included royal mansions), and present examples of how over improvements diminish in return as the number/quality of amenities increasingly exceed what is normal for a market area.

How do you value a home with one bedroom where 4 is typical? What about a 600 sq ft ranch in a neighborhood of 5,000 sq ft contemporary homes? What about a home with only a wood stove as a heat source? These are examples of under improvements and during valuation a key factor must be considered - “What portion of the market would be willing to purchase such a home?”

Decades of data, nationwide support the fact that buyers gravitate towards what is typical, and the buyer pool diminishes as you deviate from the mean in any particular amenity. Diminished buyer pools result in diminished demand, and therefore diminished value per unit. This is a principle across many economic fields and applies to real estate as well.

Another way of stating this is that “The more of something you have, the less each individual thing is worth,” and one of the easiest and most consistent ways of seeing this in the market is land.

Notice that as you increase the number of acres, the return divided by the total number of acres decreases. Some properties may have a better location in Armstrong County than others, and others may have sold above/below market value, but as a general rule, the trend is clear. Other amenities will have different shaped graphs - take pools for example. In the lower end of the market, pools offer no contributory value. The buyer pool in this range may not have the resources to maintain a pool, and therefore it is seen as a negative by part of the market, positive by some, and a net neutral overall. However, in the higher end of the market, this amenity can have a return (though nearly never higher than the cost of installation). However, imagine a buyers reaction to a second pool on a half acre lot. This would be seen as a liability that needs to be fixed not as an amenity, and therefore have a negative appeal. The second pool’s value on the graph would drop below zero, and so on.

When building/remodeling a home it is vital to consider, “What is normal for my market/buyer pool?” The wider of a divergence from “normal” will result in decreasing returns and difficult sales in the future.