Greensburg 2022 Market in Review

The year 2022 was a year of historically low inventory and high demand, unlike anything Greensburg has seen in recent history. Interest rates have been a major player in the market this year and definitely caused some of the historic gains to cool off towards the last quarter of the year. As rates rose, activity slowed- at least to a certain extent. As you look through this report, you will notice that the rise in mortgage rates corresponds to other market data events.

 The annual median home sales price for all residential properties in Greensburg rose from $149,950 in 2021 to $173,450 in 2022 which is a 15.7% increase. Compare that to the year 2020 when the median sale price was $135,000 and the increase was at 11.1%.  In looking to this coming year, it is safe to say that these increases will cool down. To what degree will depend on mortgage interest rates, inflation, demand and market saturation.

The general trend in the median sale price over the past year has been increasing with the peaks in those increases showing up during the summer months.

The supply has been historically very low in 2022. The supply appears to have had a sharp increase towards the end of the year which is counter intuitive to cyclical seasonal historical data.

The marketing times (expressed in DOM- days on market) has also been extremely low. However, in the past few months, this has been rising due to a cooling in the market most likely attributed to seasonal cyclical events during winter months and compounded by the rising mortgage rates.

As is expected, the quantity of sales decreased in the last quarter of the year.

One point of data I was surprised to see pertains to the actual number of transactions year over year for the last 3 years. The years 2020 and 2021 had a high number of transactions with 2022 showing a slight drop off. This is conversely affected by the fact that with fewer transactions, there was a higher median sale price.  

The current number of active listings is also decreasing. We will have to wait a few months to see if this starts to increase when the market typically experiences seasonal cyclical events around March or April when sellers like to place their properties on the market.

Not only as demonstrated in the previous chart which showed the number of actives decreasing, the median list price is also decreasing. This could be significant to keep in mind. As the marketing times increase and the list prices decrease, this could have a direct impact on the median sale price going forward. Only time will tell how all of this will affect 2023 sales.

Neighborhood vs Market Area

One of the foundations that determines the value of a property is the well known mantra- location, location, location. But what does that really mean? Simply put, the value of a property is in direct relation to where it is located- both its neighborhood and the market area it is located within. An appraiser should be able to define the neighborhood along with the market area in order to research and accurately report those factors that affect the value of a property.

What defines a subject’s neighborhood? A neighborhood is a group of complementary land uses, a congruous grouping of inhabitants, buildings or business enterprises. It focuses on four sets of considerations that influence value: social, economic, governmental and environmental factors. Sometimes, a neighborhood is well defined- consider some housing plans and subdivisions or even small towns. In more rural areas, the neighborhood is less easily defined and could encompass an entire municipality.

So then, how is the neighborhood different from the market area? A market area is the geographic or locational delineation of the market for a specific category of real estate. It is an area in which alternative similar properties effectively compete with the subject in the minds of potential purchasers, often referred to as the buyer pool. A market area is often much larger than a neighborhood. A property located in a subdivision could have a market area that includes additional alternative subdivisions that would have a similar appeal based on the location, school district, access to local amenities, median price range, etc.

Within any given market analysis is a term referred to as market segmentation. This is the process by which submarkets within a larger market are defined. Specifically, it is taking a look at the market data and determining segmented portions such as retirement communities, condominiums, investment properties, etc.

One example would be a sub-market for condominiums in Murrysville. Condominiums in this market area make up less than 10% of the overall real estate but there is a well defined buyer pool for these types of properties. In order to analyze the impact of value on a condominium in Murrysville, you would need to first analyze the plan it is located in (the neighborhood), then analyze Murrysville as a whole (the market area) and then further extract that data to analyze other similar condominiums in Murrysville (segmented market area).

As you can see, the location of any given property can be directly influenced by its direct neighborhood, the larger market area and the segment of the market that it is classified as.

In the near future, I’d like to take a very real but hypothetical look at an example property and how knowing both your neighborhood and market area has a direct impact on the data needed to be analyzed and the comparables chosen.

What Does An Appraiser Look For?

When either making the appointment or at the property I often hear things like “I’m sorry but I didn’t get a chance to cut my lawn” or “Please excuse the mess as we are packing and have boxes everywhere” or “We are planning on having a deck built later this year and replace the windows after that”.

What ARE we looking for when we are at your property?

You’ve just had an appraiser show up at your door for the appraisal. You now have a stranger in your house that is peering into areas of your home that any other person would need a warrant to see, who will be developing a report that in some instances can have a major impact on your objectives: the purchase of a new home, the ability to take cash out and make needed repairs, refinance to take advantage of rates to get lower monthly payments, etc. Not knowing what they are looking for can leave one feeling pretty anxious.

First, lawn maintenance and tidiness are not on our list. While it is easier to view what we need when the house is neat and tidy, it is not a priority. We are given the liberty to make assumptions that what is not visible is consistent with what is visible. If the carpet and walls appear to be in good condition, then the assumption is made that the carpet under the couch doesn’t have a horrible stain or the wall behind the large mirror does not have extensive damage. Imagine if we had to move everything out of the way so that we see 100% of every surface. A little bit of clutter doesn’t change the way we make assumptions.

To simplify the basic list of what we DO look for when we arrive at your property

size, style, quality and condition.

On the exterior we measure to determine the overall size of the structure(s). This helps us to calculate the gross living area (GLA) and other building areas such as garages, barns, sheds, etc.

Then we are looking at the style, materials and workmanship- ranch vs cape cod, attached garage vs detached garage, brick vs vinyl, metal vs composite shingle, plain design vs ornate and detailed, basic materials vs high end materials, new vs old. Each of these details are documented in order to give us a clear picture of the size, quality and condition.

On the interior, as we walk through the house, we are also determining the same things in addition to the utility or functionality of the property. Overall, how many rooms/bedrooms/bathrooms are there and what is the layout? Is it a 50 year old house with mostly original finishes, has everything been remodeled recently or something in between? Have the short lived items been replaced- hot water tank, furnace, carpeting, etc.? Is it stock grade cabinetry or is it a custom kitchen with all the bells and whistles? Are there 2 bathrooms or 4 bathrooms? All of these details matter.

In all honesty, I don’t even see the dozens of boxes that are packed and waiting for the moving truck to load and bring them to another location. I do notice the newly refinished hardwood flooring, the new furnace, the older plastic tile bathroom (yes we have plastic tile bathrooms in our area- once popular in the 50’s and 60’s), the lack of GFCI outlets near water sources, the settlement cracks in the basement, etc.

For those improvements you are planning to make, unless we are doing an appraisal that is “subject to” these things being completed in the future, what you are planning to do will have no impact on the value. Conversely, the renovations you have made over the years also have little impact in light of what it used to be. We base our analysis on what exists now. It is good for us to know and have a list of those improvements so that our information is accurate. However, if you had carpet when you purchased the property 15 years ago and have since replaced it with hardwood flooring and ceramic tile, what matters is that you currently have the hardwood flooring and ceramic tile.

The next time you are having an appraisal completed on your home, having the regular maintenance of your yard completed and the housekeeping tidy is helpful so that we can see as much of the property in its best light as possible. However, this has little impact on the size, quality and condition of the components that exist the day we are at your property collecting all this data. The existing salient features, their quality and condition are what we are looking for.

Modular vs Manufactured-There IS a Distinction

Modular and manufactured homes are both prefabricated structures, however, there is a noted difference between the two. Confusion abounds because many real estate professionals use the words Modular, Manufactured, Doublewide, Mobile Home and Trailer seemingly interchangeably. Let’s see if we can clear up the confusion.

First we must understand that the term “mobile home” is obsolete and refers to transportable homes constructed prior to June 30, 1976. This is an important date that becomes a critical date to keep in mind. After this date, the building codes changed drastically and new building standards were adopted.

The major distinction between a modular and manufactured home- the standard to which they are constructed. Modular homes are built to building code and manufactured homes are built to HUD code. These are two distinctly difference codes. When a manufactured home is completed, it is inspected by a HUD certified inspector in the factory. You can verify that a manufactured home has been inspected by the metal tag which is placed on the outside indicating it meets the HUD code (one tag per section). They HUD code is a federal code and explains why they can be placed anywhere in the country once they are built. Modular homes do not have these metal tags on the outside as they are built to meet the local building code in which they will be located. The final inspection for these structures are conducted by approved inspectors for the area they are located and not in factory.

Another specific fact that makes modular structures different from manufactured homes is that a modular home is not constructed on a chassis. The metal chassis used to transport a modular structure to the site does not remain in place and acts solely as support for transport purposes only. Manufactured homes are built 100% off site and constructed on the chassis. The chassis is an important intregal part of the structure that remains in place. The chassis allows for the manufactured home to be placed on foundation systems which are varied and can include full foundations, in-ground piers or pads. Modular homes do not have the ability to be placed on pier or pads.

A couple distinctions that affect your appraisal and lending ability also are related to these differences. Modular homes are treated similarly to stick built structures and have the least restrictions. When appraising a modular home, it is essentially treated similarly to an on site stick built structure and typically there are no lending restrictions.

Conversely, manufactured homes are different. When appraising manufactured homes, it is typical to only use other manufactured sales as comparables. Also, there are many lenders that will not loan on properties that are manufactured homes. This reduces the size of the typical buyer pool and can negatively impact the value for this reason.

Lets circle back to the June 30, 1976 date. When appraising a manufactured home, it is important to locate the Certification Data Plate which is typically located on the interior of the home under a kitchen or bathroom sink. This information is necessary to prove the date of manufacture because lenders that do allow for loans on these types of structures want to verify it was manufactured after this date. Those homes manufactured prior to this date do not qualify for any of your typical financing- conventional, FHA, USDA or VA financing. This can severely inhibit the marketability for these types of properties. There might be some small portfolio type lenders that will allow financing on these older units, but they are few and far between.

When making the decision to purchase a modular or manufactured home, know the differences as these can significantly affect your ability to market the property and obtain financing. If you are unsure as to the type of prefabricated structure you are dealing with, give our office a call. We specialize in appraising all forms of prefabricated structures and have the experience to help you.

Why You Should Not Rely on Your Zestimate

If only I received a dollar for every person I heard say “Zillow says my house is worth $XXX” I could possibly retire…. Well, that may be a slight exaggeration, but it doesn’t negate the fact that people trust what they deem to be reliable information. My advice to you is that you should not trust the stated Zestimate as a reliable source to determine what your house is worth. A Zillow estimate IS NOT an appraisal. I am not anti-Zillow since I do believe there is a place for them in todays big data world, however, it cannot be relied upon as a trusted source to determine the value of your home. Let me explain why.

First, the source of the information for your house might be unreliable. They use available public record, real estate industry data and user-submitted information to determine the features of your home. In my 22 years of real estate experience, I have found that these records are often inaccurate when determining the style, size, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc. In addition, these records never indicate to what degree a home has been maintained. Some people are very proactive at keeping their home well maintained and others…. well, not so much. I’ve seen it all in 22 years. Over the life of the home, there are items that affect the quality and condition of a home related to remodeling/updates and overall ongoing maintenance. Public records often don’t give a true insight into these finer details.

Second, the algorithm they use relies heavily on the zip code. Zip code does not typically relate to neighborhood or market area. The algorithm has improved due to location but using zip code can be misleading. In our area, we have a good example with the zip code 15601 which corresponds to the Greensburg City post office. All the zip code relates to is which USPS office handles and distributes the mail to that address. Within the 15601 zip code you have multiple municipalities such as Greensburg City, Hempfield Township, Salem Township, South Greensburg and Unity Township. That is 5 different areas that are serviced by 3 different school districts. As one would suspect, all of these areas are not similar and would include a higher density area with older structures in the City of Greensburg, residential rural areas with multiple acre parcels like some of Salem Township and newer suburban residential plans often found in Hempfield and Unity Townships. The algorithm used to determine the zestimate includes sales prices from all of these areas since they are all located in 15601 making the result less reliable even if it was only a portion of the factor in the algorithm.

Let me give you a real life example. I live in a homogeneous condominium community with townhome styled units built in the 1970’s. One of my neighbors just listed their townhome for $185,000. The zestimate for this property is around $248,000. It would not make sense for it to be listed for almost $65,000 less if it really was worth that much. The most likely reason for the high zestimate is the effect of living in a municipality with predominantly higher sale prices than the price point of our properties. The highest sale in the past 3 years has never exceeded $200,000 and only recently, have the sale prices been inching above $175,000 due to current increasing predominant sale prices overall.

Click here to read an article on the accuracy of online estimates

Instead of using a free but inaccurate source for information, trust an experienced professional real estate appraiser to indicate the correct estimate of market value for your home. Just think. If the algorithm was even remotely accurate, why did Spencer Rascoff, the owner of Zillow, sell his property in 2016 for 40 % less than the zestimate?