Demystifying Square Footage Discrepancies in Real Estate: What You Need to Know

Confidence in the size of your home is a fundamental aspect of real estate, but have you ever wondered why the reported square footage can differ from one source to another? In this article, we will delve into the reasons behind these discrepancies and underscore the significance of precise measurements in the real estate world.

When you bought your house, someone, whether it was a real estate agent, a builder, or a published source, provided you with an estimate of its size. However, this estimate may not always be consistent or entirely accurate. Let's explore the factors that contribute to these variations.

Every source of square footage data follows different standards and regulations when measuring and reporting. Online real estate platforms like Realtor.com, Zillow, and Redfin rely on an IDX system, which aggregates information from regional MLS systems. The square footage displayed on these platforms is typically entered by the listing agent. Unless that agent has been trained in specific measuring standards, the data may originate from sources like tax records or the homeowner.

In Pennsylvania, for instance, assessors are not required to adhere to professional measuring standards like ANSI, leading to square footage estimates based on rounded or estimated measurements. Furthermore, many agents include areas like finished basements or unheated enclosed porches in the square footage, even if they are not considered above-grade space. This is done to represent the property in the best possible light and attract the right buyer.

So, why do appraisals often reveal differences in square footage? Appraisers must adhere to precise standards that dictate what can be counted as above-grade square footage. Using the ANSI Z765-2021 measuring standards, as enacted by Fannie Mae in 2022, appraisers must measure with precision down to the nearest inch or tenth of an inch. (Let’s not debate that these are two slightly different measurements- I didn’t write the standard.) There are also areas of a structure that cannot be included in above-grade square footage, such as spaces with a ceiling height of less than 7 feet. If any part of a level is not entirely above ground level, it cannot be included in the square footage calculation. Additionally, in homes with two-story ceiling heights, like large open foyers or great rooms, the open area is counted only once for the main level.

If you receive an appraisal report that indicates a different square footage than what you believed your house to be, it's essential to investigate further. Compare the source of your initial knowledge to the sketch in your appraisal report to understand the discrepancies.

In the world of real estate, understanding square footage variations is crucial. It can impact the value of your property, as well as your buying or selling decisions. Being aware of the different standards used by various sources can help you make informed choices and ensure that your home's size is accurately represented.

Does an Appraisal Have an Expiration Date?

Appraisals do not expire. Every appraisal report is required to have an effective date which reflects the date the value opinion relates to. This date is important because it is the date that becomes the benchmark reflecting the research and analysis of the market trends that impacted the development of value. If at any time after that effective date the market trends change, then the value result could be impacted proportionately.

It is important to note that while there is technically no expiration date, lenders may have their own designated time period for which an appraisal is good for. Most accept an appraisal for 90 days, however, in a rapidly changing market, this time period often can be reduced to 30 days.

Dollars and Sense: The Significance of Knowing Your Home's Worth

You would have to be living under a rock or in an area that is completely off grid to not be somewhat aware that real estate prices have been fluctuating and increasing significantly in many areas over the past couple of years. If you have not purchased or refinanced recently, your homes value might have changed from where you thought it was just 12 -18 months ago. Knowing the value of your home can be important for many reasons of which, here are a few:

Financial Planning

The value of your home is a significant component of your overall net worth. Your home is likely one of your most significant assets. Knowing its value allows you to calculate your net worth accurately. Understanding its value helps you make informed decisions about your financial planning, such as determining your assets, calculating your equity, or evaluating your borrowing capacity.

Selling or Renting

If you're considering selling or renting out your property, knowing its value is crucial. It allows you to set a competitive price that aligns with the market, ensuring you don't undervalue or overprice your home.

Refinancing or Home Equity Loans

When refinancing your mortgage or applying for a home equity loan, the value of your home plays a vital role in determining the amount you can borrow. Lenders assess the loan-to-value ratio, which compares the loan amount to the home's appraised value, to determine eligibility and interest rates.

Property Taxes

The value of your home often influences property tax assessments. Local tax authorities use property values to calculate the amount of tax you owe. Knowing your home's value helps you ensure that you're being taxed fairly and can plan for potential increases.

Insurance Coverage

Understanding the value of your home is essential for obtaining the appropriate insurance coverage. If your home is underinsured, you may not receive sufficient compensation in the event of damage or loss. Conversely, overinsuring your home means paying more in premiums than necessary.

Investment Decisions

If you're considering real estate as an investment, knowing the value of your home can help you assess its potential return on investment, evaluate rental income potential, or make informed decisions about buying additional properties.

It is important to note that home values can fluctuate over time due to various factors such as market conditions, location, renovations, or changes in the neighborhood. Therefore, regularly monitoring and assessing your home's value is important for staying informed. If you would like to check out more information regarding the importance of knowing your homes value, check out the following articles:

https://www.homes.com/blog/2017/03/benefits-of-knowing-your-homes-value-whether-you-are-staying-or-selling/

https://www.homelight.com/blog/check-house-value/

ADU's- What are they and how do they impact the appraisal process?

Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are secondary residential units on the same property as the main dwelling. They provide homeowners and potential buyers with opportunities to enhance property value, generate income, or accommodate multi-generational living. It's important to understand how ADUs can impact property value and financing options, particularly considering the restrictions set by Fannie Mae and FHA lending guidelines. Let's explore further.

First, what is an ADU? An ADU is a separate living space, often with a kitchen, bathroom, and sleeping area, located on the same property as the main residence. It can be a detached structure, converted basement or garage, or an addition to the primary dwelling.

Benefits of purchasing a property with an ADU:

• Extra income potential through renting the ADU as long as there are no zoning restrictions.

• Flexibility for multi-generational living arrangements especially when they might be older and need some moderate assistance.

• Versatile space for personal use, such as a home office or guest suite.

• It can have the potential to increases property value.

There are some financing fonsiderations that need to be considered when attempting to purchase or build a property that has an ADU with money from the bank. Fannie Mae Restrictions and FHA have very similar restrictions. These include:

• The ADU must have its own entrance, kitchen, and bathroom.

• The property must be appraised as a single-unit with an additional value attributed to the ADU. (The living area of the ADU cannot be combined with the living area of the primary residence.)

• The rental income from the ADU may be considered for loan qualification purposes, subject to specific criteria.

If you are considering a property with an ADU, they are a powerful asset that can increase property value and offer financial opportunities. However, it's important to consider the restrictions imposed by lending guidelines. By understanding these guidelines, buyers can make informed decisions about financing options and ensure a smooth transaction when purchasing a property with an ADU. With the ability to generate income, accommodate changing needs, and contribute to affordable housing, ADUs remain an attractive feature in today's real estate market.

Is A Convicted Felon Inspecting Your Home?

In recent years, Fannie Mae has been working towards what they call Valuation Modernization. This process involves allowing for the gradual progression of a bifurcated valuation product to make the home valuation process more efficient and accurate. However, what Fannie Mae did not explicitly state is that they were also trying to combat the growing shortage of appraisers in the industry. The increased qualifications to become an appraiser, along with the the numbers of appraisers leaving the profession, contributed to this shortage.

The newest product Fannie Mae just rolled out is called valuation acceptance + property data. This is when someone, most likely not an appraiser, inspects the property for the lender and provides them with the property data. The lender uses this property data in conjunction with valuation models to determine if a traditional appraisal is needed. However, this is unsettling on many levels. For example, did you know that these property inspectors have no oversight or regulations as of right now? It is up to the lender to demonstrate the credibility of these property data collectors.

In contrast, licensed appraisers and their trainees who are bound by ethics, vetted and background checked by their respective states should be used for all property data collections going forward. But that most likely isn't going to happen because then lenders will have to address the entire reason why we don't provide this service - the fee. The dirty little secret in all of this is that lenders use these data collectors because it is cheap.

Here is an example of what can go wrong when using a property data collector that was not vetted. In one such case, a major Appraisal Management Company hired an individual who stated on his LinkedIn page that he was a "videographer." This same individual was convicted along with two other individuals for staging an armed robbery. It is reported that it was during this conviction that he was hired as a data collector. Is this the type of person you want in your house?

https://appraisersblogs.com/amc-hires-a-convicted-felon-as-property-data-collector

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdmi/pr/2022_1102_Uchendu-et-al

Cases like this one (and possibly others) raise the concern that criminals, convicted or otherwise, will use property data collections as an opportunity to "case" homes for criminal activity. This creates liability for lenders, the GSEs/taxpayers, homebuyers, and others who rely on these products.

In conclusion, while Fannie Mae's Valuation Modernization process aims to make the home valuation process more efficient and accurate, the use of unlicensed property data collectors raises concerns about the security and safety of homeowners. It is essential that lenders and regulators ensure that these collectors are vetted and regulated, to avoid the possibility of criminals infiltrating the industry. Using licensed appraisers and their trainees, who are bound by ethics and vetted by their respective states, should be the preferred option for property data collections going forward.

Why Does the Appraiser Need the Sales Contract?

When it comes to appraising a property, appraisers must take into account all agreements of sale. According to Standards Rule 1-5 in the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), we are required to analyze any contracts for sale. That's why it's important for the appraiser to receive a copy of the sales contract.

 By viewing the contract, the appraiser may be able to identify irregularities and comment on them. For example, if the contract includes provisions for concessions, non-real property items included in the sale, or other unusual conditions, the appraiser may need to comment on these provisions in the appraisal report to explain why there is a difference between the indicated market value of the subject property and the contract price.

 The appraiser is likely familiar with the local real estate contract forms, customary terms, and conditions of real estate transactions in the area. This familiarity enables the appraiser to better understand the specifics of the contract and identify any unusual terms that may need to be addressed in the appraisal report.

In summary, providing a copy of the sales contract to the appraiser is essential to ensure an accurate appraisal. Appraisers are required to analyze all agreements of sale. Understanding the specific provisions of the sales contract is critical to producing an appraisal report that accurately reflects the property's value. By providing the appraiser with the sales contract, homebuyers can help ensure that the appraisal report is reliable and based on accurate information.

Clean and Green- From the appraiser's point of view

Clean and Green is a preferential tax assessment program enacted in 1974 under the stated goal of “protecting the Commonwealth's valuable farmland, forestland, and open spaces.” It bases property taxes on use values rather than fair market values. This ordinarily results in a tax savings for landowners..

https://www.agriculture.pa.gov/plants_land_water/farmland/clean/pages/default.aspxPA Clean & Green Program

Once enrolled, the general rule is that the landowner is obligated to continue using the land in a qualified use indefinitely or face the penalty of roll-back taxes for the most recent seven years, PLUS 6% of that difference per year. If a landowner sells a property enrolled in Clean & Green, the buyer will be obligated to continue using the land in a qualified use or pay roll-back taxes and interest.

Clean & Green also has limitations as to subdividing the property. No more than 2 acres can be split off (3 acres where municipalities require a 3 acre minimum lot size) per year for the purpose of building a residence. The total of these types of subdivisions can never exceed a total of 10 acres. These split offs would be subject to the roll back tax but only for the portion that is being split off.

A subdivision can can be made dividing the property into parcels that are more than 10 acres minimum. As long as they remain the same use, it would then not be subject to the roll back taxes.

While enrolling in the Clean and Green program may be free and save thousands in taxes in the short run by reducing the annual tax rate, make sure you are aware of how this impacts your land value. It will limit the use of the property unless you take the steps necessary to remove the enrollment and pay the mandatory differences in the taxes plus a 6% interest rate. If you are thinking of selling the property, it could also limit the size of your interested buyer pool.

Where do you want 3rd degree burns?

Water heaters come from the factory set to 140 degrees, which is hot enough to produce 1st degree burns after 3 seconds of exposure. However, pressure relief valves aren’t set to trigger until 150psi, or when the water temperature reaches 210 degrees. That’s hot enough to instantly produce 3rd degree burns. Prior to tanks being designed with a pressure relief valve, when the water pressure would get too high, the tank would explode.

Many hot water tanks are installed in areas like laundry rooms where the chances of the pressure relief valve releasing this damaging steam is likely to happen when someone is nearby. In some models, the pressure relief valve is located on top of the tank… at face level. Many others are located on the side… at chest or hip level. Some models are at ankle height, but all of them allow for a pipe to be installed to direct the water/steam directly and harmlessly at the floor.

“The discharge piping serving a pressure relief valve, temperature relief valve or combination thereof shall Not terminate more than 6 inches above the floor or waste receptor. (504.6 Requirements for discharge piping)”

— International Association of Certified Home Inspectors

For some reason, water heaters do not ship with an extension pipe for the pressure relief valve to direct this boiling steam away from homeowners. PLEASE, spend the $15 it takes to install an extension pipe on your pressure relief valve to protect yourself and family. It might even help prevent repair issues the next time your property needs appraised.

Does a manufactured home that has been moved more than once qualify for a loan?

If you plan on purchasing a property that is a manufactured home using financing, find out if the unit has been placed there from the manufacturer/dealer or if it was moved after previously being located at another location. In order to qualify for most lender financing, a manufactured home can only be moved ONE time- from the factory or dealer to its original location and permanently attached to an approved foundation system. If a manufactured home is moved a 2nd time, it is ineligible for ANY type of financing other than owner carry or a VA loan. Even then, it would require a special approval from the VA in order to do the loan.

Fannie Mae guidelines state that the unit must not have been previously installed or occupied at any other site or location, except from the manufacturer or the dealer's lot as a new unit. Moving it would mean it wasn't attached to a permanent foundation and therefore, is viewed more as personal property and not real property. Additionally, the manufactured home must be a one-unit dwelling that is legally classified as real property and cannot include an accessory dwelling unit.

This becomes important from a value standpoint because a buyer’s purchasing power affects the value of a property in a market where the predominance of financing a property is through a lending institution. When a property disqualifies a buyer from obtaining mortgage financing, it requires the buyer to purchase using cash. In short, relocating a manufactured home can reduce the value of the property simply for the reason that it would limit the buyer pool to those who have cash.

Spring Cleaning That Can Add Value

It’s that time of year when spring cleaning gets added to your “To Do” list. Here are some tips that can help not only freshen your home but add some value. If you are looking to sell soon, these ideas will make your home more marketable.

• Declutter- A clean and organized home looks more valuable and appealing to potential buyers. Start by decluttering your home and getting rid of any items that are no longer needed.

• Deep Clean - This includes carpets, floors, walls, and windows.

• Upgrade your lighting - Updating your lighting fixtures can make a big impact on the overall look of your home. Consider replacing outdated light fixtures with modern ones and use energy-efficient LED bulbs to save money on your energy bills.

• Fix minor repairs - If I had to point out the most important simple tip for maintaining the value in your home, take the time to fix minor repairs, such as leaky faucets, loose doorknobs, defective paint surfaces and scuffs on walls. These small repairs can make a big difference in the overall appearance and functionality of your home.

• Landscaping - Landscaping can make a huge difference in the curb appeal of your home. Trim bushes, mow the lawn, and plant flowers to make your home look more attractive and well-maintained.

• Paint - We all know that fresh paint does not necessarily add value. However, painting your home can significantly improve its appearance and make it look fresher and newer. Consider painting your front door, walls, and trim in neutral colors that are attractive to most buyers.

• Upgrade your kitchen and bathroom - While this might be one of the more expensive items you would consider, upgrading your kitchen and bathroom can significantly improve the value of your home. For budget friendly ideas, consider replacing outdated fixtures and consider painting cabinets. If you have a little more money in your budget, replacing countertops and floor coverings can make a big difference in the appeal of these rooms.

By taking these steps, you can improve the value of your home without breaking the bank. These minor improvements can make a big difference in the overall appearance and appeal of your home.

Are You Housing a Silent Killer?

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that is colorless, odorless, and tasteless. It is considered to be the leading cause in lung cancer deaths in non-smokers and the second cause amongst those who smoke which is why it is referred to as the silent killer. It is formed by the decay of uranium and thorium, which are present in most rocks and soils. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends that homes be tested for radon, and that homeowners take steps to mitigate radon levels if they are found to be high.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends that homes be remediated if the radon level exceeds 4 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) of air. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a lower action level of 2.7 pCi/L. It's important to note that while the recommended action levels vary, there is no safe level of radon exposure. Radon is a known carcinogen, and the risk of lung cancer increases with higher levels of exposure. Even radon levels below the recommended action level can pose a risk over time.

Reducing radon levels in buildings can help to reduce the risk of lung cancer and other health problems associated with radon exposure. The process of radon remediation involves identifying the source of the radon, typically through testing, and then taking steps to reduce the amount of radon in the air.

Radon remediation can include sealing cracks and openings in the foundation, improving ventilation, and installing a radon mitigation system, such as a fan or other equipment that can help to vent the radon gas from the building. The specific approach used for radon remediation will depend on the nature and severity of the radon problem, as well as the characteristics of the building.

Overall, radon remediation is an important step to protect the health and well-being of those who live and work in buildings that may be affected by radon.

For Better or For Worse? FNME vs GPAR

Over the years, I have provided appraisals for properties owned by individuals going through divorce proceedings and have had the opportunity to be used in several counties as an expert witness. Whenever I am providing an appraisal for marital dissolution purposes, there are a few things I keep in mind. Most important is the possibility that my report might end up being used as part of expert witness testimony in a formal court proceeding. For this reason, it is important to know the correct form to use.

Most appraisers complete their reports on Fannie Mae produced forms as the majority of the work completed is for lending purposes. It is important to understand that these forms were created by and expressly for Fannie Mae purposes. There are pre-printed certifications which clearly indicate the use of and purpose for these forms.

Unfortunately, using Fannie Mae forms for litigation work is a mistake. While an appraiser should be aware of this, I have found in reviewing opposing counsels “expert” appraisal reports that many use the wrong form. Legal authorities have advised and forewarned that the use of the 1004 URAR appraisal form for litigation purposes carries the risk of having that report thrown out and ultimately, that side losing their case.

Per Jody Bruns, CDLP, using the wrong form could be a costly mistake and can jeopardize a case. Check out the full article here:

http://digitaleditions.walsworthprintgroup.com/publication/?i=286075&article_id=2358305&view=articleBrowser

In the future, if you are looking to have an appraisal completed for divorce purposes, be sure that you engage the services of an appraiser who has the experience and knowledge to know that using the correct form can make all the difference in your case.

Neighborhood vs Market Area

One of the foundations that determines the value of a property is the well known mantra- location, location, location. But what does that really mean? Simply put, the value of a property is in direct relation to where it is located- both its neighborhood and the market area it is located within. An appraiser should be able to define the neighborhood along with the market area in order to research and accurately report those factors that affect the value of a property.

What defines a subject’s neighborhood? A neighborhood is a group of complementary land uses, a congruous grouping of inhabitants, buildings or business enterprises. It focuses on four sets of considerations that influence value: social, economic, governmental and environmental factors. Sometimes, a neighborhood is well defined- consider some housing plans and subdivisions or even small towns. In more rural areas, the neighborhood is less easily defined and could encompass an entire municipality.

So then, how is the neighborhood different from the market area? A market area is the geographic or locational delineation of the market for a specific category of real estate. It is an area in which alternative similar properties effectively compete with the subject in the minds of potential purchasers, often referred to as the buyer pool. A market area is often much larger than a neighborhood. A property located in a subdivision could have a market area that includes additional alternative subdivisions that would have a similar appeal based on the location, school district, access to local amenities, median price range, etc.

Within any given market analysis is a term referred to as market segmentation. This is the process by which submarkets within a larger market are defined. Specifically, it is taking a look at the market data and determining segmented portions such as retirement communities, condominiums, investment properties, etc.

One example would be a sub-market for condominiums in Murrysville. Condominiums in this market area make up less than 10% of the overall real estate but there is a well defined buyer pool for these types of properties. In order to analyze the impact of value on a condominium in Murrysville, you would need to first analyze the plan it is located in (the neighborhood), then analyze Murrysville as a whole (the market area) and then further extract that data to analyze other similar condominiums in Murrysville (segmented market area).

As you can see, the location of any given property can be directly influenced by its direct neighborhood, the larger market area and the segment of the market that it is classified as.

In the near future, I’d like to take a very real but hypothetical look at an example property and how knowing both your neighborhood and market area has a direct impact on the data needed to be analyzed and the comparables chosen.

Appraisal Racial Bias.... Pardon our Interruption

Part 2 has been written and was ready to drop today except for the necessity to provide you important information regarding fast approaching upcoming hearings. Earlier this year, the CFPB’s (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) Fair Lending Director, Patrice Alexander Ficklin, stated that they were going to prioritize resources to focus on the role of racial bias in home appraisals

The CFPB has announced that they will be holding a hearing with the ASC (Appraisal Subcommittee) specifically to discuss this issue. This hearing is open to the public but it requires an RSVP.

For information regarding this hearing and to RSVP, visit the CFPB’s website or click on the image below to follow the link:

Rear View Mirror or Crystal Ball?

Appraisals are a report that indicates an opinion of market value for a property. It is a reflection of what has been happening up until a certain point (our effective date) and not what is going to happen or might be continuing to happen.

What has happened could be different from what is going to happen. There is a place in real estate valuation for forecasting, but when completing appraisals for mortgage lending, divorce, estates, bankruptcy and listing work, we look at the sales and trends leading up to our effective date. Most often, our effective date is the day we look at the house, but there are times when our effective date is a retrospective look at a prior date such as a date of separation for marital dissolution purposes or date of death for estate purposes.

In any of these cases, the effective date that reflects the estimated market value is a culmination of the data analysis in the market leading up to that date. In other words, we are always looking in the rear view mirror to determine our opinion of value.

Over the past year, appraisers ran into situations where our rear view mirror was not equaling the rapidly changing markets. Houses were being listed and within less than 24 hours, sellers had multiple offers to choose from. Some of those offers included a percentage above the list price that seemed ludicrous, but buyers were desperate to get into a house and were getting discouraged by running into rejection after rejection so they were making very attractive offers. Inventory was low and this created the perfect storm. If you had cash and didn’t care about value, no problem. But if you needed a mortgage, the appraisal needed to reflect that it was worth what the buyer was willing to pay for it. In many instances, the history of sales did not make this possible. It either forced the buyer to bring the cash to the table to make up the difference or go back at the drawing board and start searching again.

Market value looks at how these actions between buyers and sellers have affected the climate in the market and use the sales that have closed as indicators of value for the property being appraised. It isn’t until you have an accumulation of data points that indicate buyers and sellers are reacting in concert that you have the ability to point to a changing market. In rapidly changing markets, it is challenging to correctly interpret the data and accurately reflect those changes. Those changes being reflected are not to be understood as an indicator that they will continue to happen, only that they have happened.

Lead Based Paint Can't Be THAT Bad... or Can It?

Homes built prior to 1978 have the potential to have lead based paint contained in it. In many of the areas I appraise such as Greensburg, Delmont, Export, Derry, Irwin, etc., that is a lot of homes. Probably 80% or more of the homes in these areas were built prior to 1978.

When lead based paint peels and cracks, it creates paint chips and dust. You can tell a deteriorated paint surface possibly contains lead when there is a pattern to the cracking termed “ alligatoring”. It creates a pattern that looks a little like scales or a grid. Another sign is if it creates a chalky residue when it rubs off. Also, any surface covered with lead-based paint where the paint may wear by rubbing or friction is likely to cause lead dust including windows, doors, floors, porches, stairways, and cabinets.

When performing appraisals for loans that are for FHA/USDA or VA financing, one of the issues that we as appraisers need to pay specific attention to is what is termed “defective paint surfaces” in houses that were built prior to 1978. Any paint that is found to be peeling, bubbled, flaked or chipped needs to be called out as a necessary repair to be professionally addressed due to the risks associated with lead based paint. To some it sounds like overkill. In fact, I used to think years ago, how can it be that bad?

So, why is this so concerning?

Is this something you should even be concerned about?

The very short answer is yes.

If you don’t read anything further in my article, please click on this link to read what the Cleveland Clinic has to say about lead poisoning. If you are like I was, this information might change your mind about the seriousness associated with lead poisoning.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/lead-paint-dangers/

When lead is absorbed into the body, it can cause damage to the brain and other vital organs like the kidneys, nerves, and blood. Lead may also cause behavioral problems, learning disabilities, seizures, and in extreme cases, death. While it is harmful to all ages, lead presents the most danger to children. Infants and young children are more likely to be exposed to lead than are older children. They might chew paint that flakes off walls and woodwork, and their hands can be contaminated with lead dust. Young children also absorb lead more easily, and it's more harmful for them than it is for adults and older children.

According to The Cleveland Clinic “For a child, even the smallest amount of lead can cause developmental problems.” If there is one thing that is most important to understand about the risk of lead poisoning, it is this… The effects of lead poisoning CANNOT be reversed. The best way to avoid the danger is to minimize the exposure to the risk.

How do you limit your risk to lead poisoning when it pertains to real estate? You can avoid it almost entirely by choosing to purchase or rent a home that was built after 1978. If that isn’t possible, then you can either have all the lead based paint removed or treat existing lead based paint by using an encapsulent. Encapsulants are materials that are applied over lead-based paint to seal the paint to a surface and prevent the release of paint chips or dust. The material may be either a liquid or an adhesive. Encapsulation provides a barrier between the paint and the environment. Conventional paint is NOT an encapsulant. There are specific types of paint that are classified as an encapsulant.

In short, know the risks and be informed. Living in a home built prior to 1978 has the possibility of having lead based paint. You can limit your risk for the potential of having lead poisoning by having a good maintenance program addressing any known existing lead based paint, having it removed and/or having it encapsulated.

Price per Square Foot Is not an Indicator of Value

There are examples throughout the country where the value of a property is referenced by price per square foot. Human beings often want a simple concept that is easy to convey and understand. This simple unit of measure takes the sale price of the house and divides it by the square footage of the house to derive at a simple unit measure of assumed value. Even if this was a trusted metric, unfortunately, the square footage might not even be right as there is no universal standard that determines this to make it reliable. Many trusted real estate websites and even real estate professionals refer to this metric when selling or attempting to use a valuation model to determine estimated value or list price. Let me tell you why this is not a good unit of measure to value your property.

First you need to understand that in order for this to make sense, all factors for marketability must be equal across the board. Its like saying that the value of a car is equal to the price per horse power regardless of the brand, style, age and condition. That makes about as much sense as determining value as a cost per square foot. Just like there are multiple factors that make up a car besides the horsepower, there are many factors that make up the value of a property that can include the quality of construction, condition, how many bedrooms and bathrooms or even the size of the lot. When you break down a sale price or assumed value based only on the gross living area of a property, you eliminate the other factors that all contribute to the value of the property.

Let’s look at a hypothetical example which happens quite often in Westmoreland County and use a 2,000 sf 2 story home built in the early 2000’s using average quality components and workmanship. These homes have 4 bedrooms and 2 1/2 bathrooms above grade with a finished family room and full bathroom in the basement.

Example 1- Located in Murrysville and is located in an established residential plan with a lot size of approximately 1/2 acre. The home has been well maintained and has a fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms. This home also has a 2 car integral garage.

Example 1- sold for $350,000 which calculates to $175.00 per square foot.

Example 2- Located in Washington Township which is just north of Murrysville but is serviced by a different school district. This house is located in a more residential rural area and sits on 5 acres of property. This home is exactly the same as example one except this home did not have any remodeling and it has a 3 car detached garage that was built 5 years ago. Its been well maintained but most items have not been replaced.

 Example 2- sold for $400,000 which calculates for $200.00 per square foot.

So which one is right- $175.00 or $200.00? Actually, neither. As you can see by these examples, while the houses may be the same in square footage, there are many determining factors that contribute to the value of a property. The higher price per square foot for the second example can be attributed to the lot size and newly built 3 car garage but these are factors that have nothing to do with the square footage of the house.

Our job as an appraiser is to determine those factors that contribute to the marketability of a property. These can include location, quality, condition, utility, lot size and additional amenities such as pools, outbuildings, etc. We use multiple methods to determine how these impact the determinations of both buyers and sellers and apply them accordingly. I can emphatically say that we never calculate value using the price per square foot “method” because we don’t have such a method. The only way price per square foot should be applied is when determining the cost to build a structure.

2019: 1st Third Analysis

As we enter 2019, with a slowing national housing market, trade wars, erratic stock market, tensions in the south pacific and in the gulf, and yield curve inversions, it's hard to see past the forest of new information. We want to provide you with basic countywide market trends and analysis to help you be better informed.

Why a third and not a quarter? Many of the markets that we cover in this report have limited data, which makes analysis difficult, yet we wanted to be able to provide some level of seasonal analysis. Quarter’s would be ideal, however, by extending the data to four months instead of three we gain 33% more data, and therefore more able to make reliable statements. It's odd, we know, but hopefully you find it helpful.

Armstrong/Indiana Counties

Armstrong: Blue \ Indiana: Grey
With 30 day moving average

Butler/Westmoreland Counties

Butler: Orange \ Westmoreland: Yellow
With 30 day moving average

Allegheny North and East

Allegheny North: Orange \ Allegheny East: Dark Blue
With 30 day moving average

Allegheny Northwest, South and West

Allegheny NW: Black \ Allegheny S: Yellow \ Allegheny W: Light Blue
With 30 day moving average

A note to begin: None of the above are singular market areas. In the two leftmost graphs are whole counties. They are placed together only because they have somewhat similar price ranges. Each of these areas has dozens of markets within them, and to represent the county trend as the market trend would be foolish. On every report that we produce we analyze the micro market of the subject and the surrounding competing markets when needed. However, to do this for a blog like this, would be to time intensive.

First up, let's look at Armstrong and Indiana Counties above (Armstrong: Blue / Indiana: Grey / 30 Day moving averages). These are both rural counties with some pockets of built-up areas (Indiana Borough, Kittanning, Homer City, Blairsville, Ford City, etc). Armstrong County as a whole has experienced typical seasonality, with a lower number of homes in the winter selling for slightly lower than the median prices would typically indicate, and a rebound towards the mean as we move into the late spring and the market begins to heat up. Indiana County, however, continues to struggle with low demand and a faltering median home price. While Indiana began to redound from typical seasonality, the month of April saw yet another decline. This is consistent with a now 2-year decline in home values in Indiana County. Leading this trend are the rural areas of the county, however, even White Township (the area just outside of Indiana Borough) has even recently begun to show signs of decline. Homer-Center School District is showing declines of as much as 7.5% per year, however, even the higher end homes of White Township are now showing a decline of 1.5% per year. Listing prices in Indiana County have begun to be in step with this (whereas a year ago they were increasing as prices were falling) however the degree to which listing prices are decreasing is lagging market prices similar to before. Overall, Armstrong County has a generally stable market, while Indiana County has weakening marketability (in part due to the past reassessment, more recent job closures, the declining population of IUP). While White Township had previously appeared to be resistant to this decline, it now appears to be moving with the county overall. It is possible that in the next year this trend could spill into the one area that has been resistant to the trend thus far: Indiana Borough.

In the year ending April 30, 2019, there were 451 sales in Armstrong County, while there are 227 homes currently on the market (Absorption rate of .166), indicative of a balance for the county which would likely indicate a continuing stable market. In the year ending April 30, 2019, there were 441 sales in Indiana County, while there are 384 homes currently on the market (Absorption rate of .096), indicative of an oversupply for the county which could continue to put downward pressure on home prices.

Next up, Butler and Westmoreland County above (Butler: Orange / Westmoreland: Yellow / 30 Day moving averages). These counties have mixtures of rural (Derry Twp and Karns City area for example) as well as very dense population centers nearer to the city (Cranberry Twp and Murrysville - not saying these are comparable, just having some similarity of density. Cranberry has experienced rapid growth in the last 15 years, which is in part reason for the higher sales prices) with wide ranges of appeal between them. Again, both are moving higher after seasonal softening in the winter months, however, Butler County with more sales is advancing more rapidly. Butler County has moved in a relatively steady direction from the winter lows, however, Westmoreland County appears to have had a week late March into early April. Reasons for this trend in relation to their neighbor Butler aren’t immediately apparent, but it is worth observing.

In the year ending April 30, 2019, there were 2,131 sales in Butler County, while there are 1,038 homes currently on the market (absorption rate of .171), indicative of a market in balance. In the year ending April 30, 2019, there were 3,768 sales in Westmoreland County, while there are 1,729 homes currently on the market (absorption rate of .182), indicative of a market in balance, or with a very slight undersupply.

Finally, the right two graphs are the 5 divisions of Allegheny County. These areas are highly complex, with massive differences in market areas even within these five divisions. Here we’ll offer the Absorption rate and linear regression analysis for the year ending on April 30, 2019, with current market data for listings.

Allegheny East (Dark blue line above) had 4,289 sales in the last year with a total of 2,050 properties currently on the market (Absorption rate of .174), indicating that supply and demand are in balance. It started as the second highest median sales price area and ended the third highest. This was the third fastest growing area of the five for that time period.

Allegheny North (Orange line above) had 4,246 sales in the last year with a total of 1,687 properties currently on the market (Absorption rate of .210), indicating that there may be an undersupply. This started and ended the first four months with the highest median sale price and had the slowest appreciation of the five areas.

Allegheny Northwest (Black line above) had 1,259 sales in the last year with a total of 472 properties currently on the market (Absorption rate of .222), indicating that there may be an undersupply. It started as the 4th highest median sales price of the four and ended the first four months as the second highest median sales price. This was the fastest growing median sales price of the five areas for the first four months of this year.

Allegheny South (Yellow line above) had 4,264 sales in the last year with a total of 1,492 properties currently on the market (Absorption rate of .238), indicating that there may be an undersupply. It started as the third highest median sales price area and ended the fourth highest. This was the fourth fastest growing area of the five for that time period.

Allegheny West (Light blue line above) had 937 sales in the last year with a total of 330 properties currently on the market (Absorption rate of .237), indicating that there may be an undersupply. This started and ended the first four months with the lowest median sales prices. This was the second fastest appreciating market over this period.

This data is isolated to the first four months of the year, coming off of the lows of mid-winter. Attempting to extrapolate this to an annual trend would result in enormous errors. Every one of the above areas for the year ending on April 30, 2019, experienced declining median sales prices and an increase in DOM over that time. The increases of the last 4 months have largely been seasonal, and in all cases have not corrected for the decline of 2018 (gray bars). Absorption rates above .20 traditionally indicate a sellers market, while absorption rates below .15 tend to indicate a buyers market. As you can see, Indiana is firmly in buyers market territory, while all but Allegheny East , in Allegheny County are in various states of buyers markets.

Why the decline? On the macro scale: Days On Market trending upward would indicate that homes on the market are higher than the buyer pool has a tolerance for generally - and that isn’t just a Pittsburgh issue, that was the story of the real estate market across the United States in 2018. The new generation (Millennials) coming into the home ownership age bracket has more debt than any generation before due to climbing education costs and falling wages when adjusted for inflation. Paired with the fact that the Baby Boomers are rapidly approaching the median life expectancy (2025), unless something unforeseen changes, this will likely mean a few years of slower than typical growth - or possible decline, as demand stays lower than typical and supply increases. Climbing interest rates in Q4 additionally put downward pressure on the real estate market across the US. Current forecasts indicate an increase of .25% over the summer off of their current 14 month low (note: an increase of .50% in the fall was paired with one of the slowest real estate markets in a decade).

On the micro scale: We expressed the reasons we believe for Indiana County above. The remaining counties have higher proximity to Pittsburgh and late 2018 saw the finalizing of the Amazon plans to build elsewhere, this may have deflated a small speculation bubble around hopes of development. We’re hopeful that a new distribution facility in Indiana County will provide some relief to the market. We also realize that there are very HOT markets in the midst of some of these declines, however, this is a bird's eye view of the region. Our area continues to move forward, navigating the transition from old industrial towns to what we are becoming. Leadership, investment, job opportunities, and creative thinking will be necessary to be successful.

Disclaimer: These graphs and analysis are based on all data available in these markets, REO, estate sales, distressed sales, and others. Micro-market trends can have huge impacts on prices, and these trends should not be extrapolated to all markets within these counties. Appraisals take as primary the immediate market area of those subject properties, and analyze differences of marketability that can change over the course of a tenth of a mile - much more those than can change from one end of a county to another.

Fun Fact: What are those hard vertical lines? Those are agents not doing closings on weekends (pushing extra data into the other 5 days, and gaps appearing weekly around weekends - good for you guys keeping your families first in the real estate race!