Series: How do I read an appraisal? Part 3

Location… location… location. The three “L’s” of real estate. Location gets two sections of the first page because of this importance. The first is the neighborhood, the macro look, and the second is a look at the individual location of the subject within the neighborhood.

Depending on where the subject is located, the neighborhood may be a small development or an entire township as in the case of rural properties. Without getting too complicated, the neighborhood of the subject is the area in which the typical buyer pool for the subject property might also look for a home. Some neighborhoods are directly comparable to each other - one end of the same school district might have the same overall appeal as the opposite end, even though the distance is quite far. However, sometimes moving just a half mile in a built up area over a school district line can have a large impact on appeal. Distance isn’t everything.

The rest of the data here asks the appraiser to analyze the overall market conditions in the market. Are home prices increasing/declining? Is there an over/under supply of homes for sale? At Town and Country we analyze the prior 3 years of sales in an area to derive our opinion. If there are more homes in the market than sold in the last 2 years combined and the days on market are creeping towards 9 months, these factors may indicate a softening market area.

This section serves as a snap shot of the market area of the subject at the time of the inspection, a look back at how the market has performed in the past, and based on current supply of homes, how the market is performing currently. It also begins to provide data on the predominate trend of homes in the area and whether the subject conforms to the market… but we’ll cover that in weeks to come.

Series: How do I read an appraisal? Part 2

USPAP (the standards that govern the appraisal profession states the following:

Standards Rule 1-5
When the value opinion to be developed is market value, an appraiser must, if such information is available to the appraiser in the normal course of business:

(a) analyze all agreements of sale. options, and listings of the subject property current as of the effective date of the appraisal; and

(b) analyze all sales of the subject property that occurred within the three (3) years prior to the effective date of the appraisal.

The appraiser MUST analyze the contract, and listing history of the subject property IF available. Analysis of these factors include:

1. What the agreed upon purchase price is

2. Monetary/Personal property concessions

3. Contingencies

4. Listing history of the property

5. The above factors, and their affect on market value, if any.

There is a common question, “How can the appraiser’s opinion of value be impartial if they know the contract price?” The data shows that this question could be valid.

While most valuations fall into a bell curve around market value (which would be expected if purchase prices are to be trusted at all, the drop at just below contract prices and spike at/slightly above contract price would indicate that this does possibly skew opinions.

The Bad: Appraisers can get sucked into “hitting the number.” The bell curve in the above graph actually peaks approximately 3% lower than contract (a very interesting percentage given typical concessions) if the spike at contract price is ignored. Inside of a real estate transaction, there is only one party that is not financially compensated based on a closed sale/higher price and that is the appraiser. If this data is skewing opinions upward, then there is a possible long term problem. Agents seek higher commissions, banks want higher payments and the market begins to spiral upwards away from fair market value… and as we learned in 2008, prices can violently correct.

The Good: Good appraisers know their job and this risk. A good appraiser only addresses the contract price at the end of their analysis, not the beginning. Also, the meeting of the minds between the buyer/seller is a data point, one of many, but a data point that deserves to be analyzed and reconciled with the rest of the market. In an ideal world, a knowledgeable/informed seller prices their home reasonably, and a knowledgeable buyer makes a reasonable offer. Real Estate Agents have a huge responsibility in this - to set aside their own personal gains and inform their buyers/sellers (for more on this topic, watch economist Steven Levit’s warning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbFkw_roJqI).

Another question often asked is, “Isn’t market value just what someone is willing to pay?” After the long process of coming to an agreed upon purchase price, having an appraiser come in with a different market value opinion can be frustrating. Why would the two be different? A simple story may help us tease the two apart:

Imagine a small village within a large desert, with a faithful well at the center. Everyday the well produces enough water for the town's people, without fail. Each day a young man pulls up gallons of water and sells the gallons for $1 each. Each person in town has enough for the day, the man is compensated for his efforts and everyone is satisfied.

Now, on a certain day, a man struggles across the desert after a long journey, nearly dying. He is an adventurer, who has just found the greatest treasure known. He knows that when he gets back to civilization he will be rich beyond words. A young boy wanders out of town and finds the man. The man offers 1 million dollars for the water sack that the boy carries, and the boy gladly complies.

A couple of questions at this point:

1) What is the water worth to the boy?
2) What is the water worth to the man?
3) What would happen if the boy began demanding 1 million dollars per gallon in town?

Its a simple and almost silly story, but it gives us a simple example. To the boy, the water is still only worth $1. To the rich man who doesn't know the value of the water, its worth his very life. To the town, once the man has drank his fill, its still worth $1.

The price in one moment doesn't change the value. An uninformed buyer doesn't set the market. Just because a house is listed for 1 billion dollars doesn't mean that its worth it. Markets are made over hundreds of transactions, between informed buyers and sellers over the course of time.

The selling season sees more listings and sometimes pricing becomes more aggressive than the market can bear. Be sure to have an accurate home valuation before listing, as it can often save you time, frustration and disappointment.

Appraisals remain the most unbiased and reliable method of valuation, but the process and standards can always be improved upon. Algorithms are being tested, but are still decades away from reliability in anywhere other than homogeneous suburban areas. Town and Country takes our job seriously to “promote and maintain a high level of public trust in appraisal practice” (Preamble to USPAP) not merely “make the deal work.”

Series: How do I read an appraisal? Part 1

Whether you are a homeowner or real estate agent, there is a lot of information that is packed into a small amount of space, and it can be overwhelming. In hopes of helping educate consumers, today we start a series going through the most common form used in the loan origination process, and address it line by line. This form is publicly available at: https://www.fanniemae.com/content/guide_form/1004.pdf

Page 1: Subject - contains the basic information pertaining to the "subject" property, or the property under consideration for the appraisal. Most of this is self explanatory, however, we'll highlight one area of possible confusion: Property Rights.

If you own a property, you own a "bundle of rights" to that property, however, some of the rights to the property may already be sold away. Mineral rights are a common example - at some point in the past the mineral rights of the property may have been sold to another party - and that "stick" is no longer in your "bundle" of rights. If your lease your home to another person, you have temporarily handed that person a few sticks in the bundle (see picture below).

An appraisal first addresses what the subject is, and what property rights are being appraised. The more "sticks" from the bundle that have been sold off, the less value the remaining property may have, and the more difficult the property may be to appraise.

For more information on the "Bundle of Rights":
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bundle-of-rights.asp

2008 vs. 2020: What can we learn from the past to protect our future?

What does the housing market have to do with plot of the movie "The Producers?"

One of the lies that was told during/after the housing crisis of 2008 is that "No one saw it coming!" However, some did, and warned the world loudly. Many in the financial markets knew and made billions. In the coming weeks we will look at the macro housing market, by looking back, and looking at lessons that we can learn. Now 10 years later, real estate professionals nationwide are warning that the lessons we learned in 2008 are being forgotten, and that the odds of another financial collapse are rising, and estimated by the majority by Q1 2020.

A number of great reporters have done an amazing job at presenting this information to the public over the past 10 years. We encourage you to take a listen/read/watch at this compilation of how the housing market of the United States brought the world to its knees, in hopes that we can avoid another collapse. When banks are allowed to bet against homeowners... its a recipe for disaster. With mortgage fraud on the rise and the legislation (Dodd Frank) that aimed to restrict this behavior targeted for repeal, you have to ask why?

A deep look at the 2008 crisis: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/405/inside-job

Two former Fed Chairmen predict a crash in 2020:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencelight/2018/07/31/4-financial-savants-warn-about-the-great-crash-of-2020/#2de307cc6197

Mortgage fraud on the rise:
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/46820-corelogic-mortgage-fraud-risk-spiked-in-the-second-quarter?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=housingwire

Promises of Dodd Frank repeal continue:  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/trump-signs-bank-bill-rolling-back-some-dodd-frank-regulations.html