Rear View Mirror or Crystal Ball?

Appraisals are a report that indicates an opinion of market value for a property. It is a reflection of what has been happening up until a certain point (our effective date) and not what is going to happen or might be continuing to happen.

What has happened could be different from what is going to happen. There is a place in real estate valuation for forecasting, but when completing appraisals for mortgage lending, divorce, estates, bankruptcy and listing work, we look at the sales and trends leading up to our effective date. Most often, our effective date is the day we look at the house, but there are times when our effective date is a retrospective look at a prior date such as a date of separation for marital dissolution purposes or date of death for estate purposes.

In any of these cases, the effective date that reflects the estimated market value is a culmination of the data analysis in the market leading up to that date. In other words, we are always looking in the rear view mirror to determine our opinion of value.

Over the past year, appraisers ran into situations where our rear view mirror was not equaling the rapidly changing markets. Houses were being listed and within less than 24 hours, sellers had multiple offers to choose from. Some of those offers included a percentage above the list price that seemed ludicrous, but buyers were desperate to get into a house and were getting discouraged by running into rejection after rejection so they were making very attractive offers. Inventory was low and this created the perfect storm. If you had cash and didn’t care about value, no problem. But if you needed a mortgage, the appraisal needed to reflect that it was worth what the buyer was willing to pay for it. In many instances, the history of sales did not make this possible. It either forced the buyer to bring the cash to the table to make up the difference or go back at the drawing board and start searching again.

Market value looks at how these actions between buyers and sellers have affected the climate in the market and use the sales that have closed as indicators of value for the property being appraised. It isn’t until you have an accumulation of data points that indicate buyers and sellers are reacting in concert that you have the ability to point to a changing market. In rapidly changing markets, it is challenging to correctly interpret the data and accurately reflect those changes. Those changes being reflected are not to be understood as an indicator that they will continue to happen, only that they have happened.